Are Robotaxis Actually Safer? What Public 2025-2026 Data Can Prove

Short answer: there is meaningful evidence that some commercial robotaxi systems are outperforming human benchmarks in specific operating domains, but comparisons are only valid when definitions and exposure are matched.

What we can verify today

Waymo's public Safety Impact dashboard reports 127 million rider-only miles through September 2025 and 81% fewer injury-causing crashes than its matched human benchmark across operating cities. Waymo's 2025 review also says annual volume exceeded 14 million trips in 2025 and more than tripled to 15 million by year-end.

Waymo Safety Impact dashboard | Waymo 2025 year in review

What federal and state datasets add

NHTSA says Standing General Order (SGO) crash data are updated monthly and currently include third-amendment reporting through January 15, 2026. California DMV separately reported more than 9 million AV test miles for the period from December 1, 2024 to November 30, 2025.

NHTSA SGO reporting dashboard | California DMV AV annual release (Feb 20, 2026)

Why many robotaxi comparisons are still fragile

• Event counts are not enough: NHTSA SGO records incidents, not normalized risk by miles/trips.
• Definitions differ: Waymo uses rider-only exposure and benchmark methods; Tesla publishes a separate FSD (Supervised) collision methodology for its connected fleet.
• Operating domains differ: geofenced driverless service and supervised consumer systems should not be treated as equivalent products.

NHTSA SGO methodology notes | Tesla Vehicle Safety Report methodology

Consumer and policy takeaway

Use layered evidence: operator disclosures, federal reporting datasets, and state annual reports. The strongest signal is not a single headline number, but consistency across multiple public sources over time.

For broader roadway context, NHTSA estimated 17,140 U.S. traffic deaths in the first half of 2025, down 8.2% year over year. AV safety progress should be measured against this national baseline, not in isolation.

NHTSA first-half 2025 fatality estimate